Early last week, gas and power prices increased following planned and unplanned outages at Norwegian gas facilities, lower renewable generation output due to reduced windspeeds, and higher gas-for-power demand in Southern Europe.
Into the week, UK power continued to trade higher on the back of a strong emissions market. Meanwhile, European gas prices retreated as Norwegian flows resumed and healthy stock levels returned.
In the UK, gas for power demand was up 10mcm day on day to cover the low wind generation, however, this was well covered by strong supply. LNG send-out was low, but, whilst stocks at the three UK terminals sit between 60 and 70%, we do not expect to see any LNG vessels for the rest of the month. UK LNG imports for July-23 are on track to be down 84% year on year, with only US tankers delivering and no Qatar vessels expected.
Earlier in the week UK gas prices were expected to rise with increased Norwegian flow. So far, planned outages in Norway in August are offset by healthy storage levels and stable supply. We saw minimal trading interest on the UK power curve, with the front month barely reaching 60 MW and the total volume of the seasonal baseload less than 150MW.